So I was writing the recap for The Blacklist and started talking about my theory for the show and it got way too long for the recap so I decided to post it separately.
I still don't think Red is Liz's father even though last week's eppy made it seem more of a possibility. I still believe Red when he said he would never lie to Liz, and therefore, believed him when he said he wasn't her father. However, I do believe he has a deeper connection to her than just the Fulcrum. I don't think Red knows where the Fulcrum is since he told Liz he was searching for it, and therefore, was actually bluffing in the episode. Because seriously if he really had it, wouldn't he have used it on the guy who hired Luther? He totally deserved it and it would set an example for the rest. As for Liz's memories, I do think Red was the one behind Liz's memory block so she wouldn't remember the fire and him being there. This would explain why the doctor thinks this wasn't her first go around.
Actually, I think Red is the one that killed Liz's father for the Fulcrum, which he hid in her stuffed bunny, then set fire to the house. Red didn't know Liz was in the closet and when she screamed for help, he saved her and has been protecting her out of guilt because she had no one else. The only reason I don't want Red to be Liz's father (even though it's still plausible) is because it's the obvious choice. TBL doesn't do obvious except for Tom, which was necessary because if he wasn't an agent, then he should have been killed off because he was all kinds of boring. But even Tom wasn't so obvious when we found out in the midseason finale he was working for Red.
By the end of the season, I would like for this mysterious connection to be over. It's been going on for a season and a half and I think this is the most frustrating thing about this show. Why don't they just do a paternity test already? It wouldn't be that hard to prove if Liz is somehow related to Red. You can only drag it out for so long.